Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 4.629842 5.538917 6.550585 7.755739 9.147890 10.701032 12.560216
2025-02-16 3.190603 4.314946 5.698074 7.507732 9.794046 12.566096 16.158411
2025-02-23 2.276470 3.430073 4.977954 7.169842 10.150371 14.013193 19.340114
2025-03-02 1.670370 2.777359 4.383049 6.819938 10.349060 15.186000 22.206991
2025-03-09 1.331839 2.416506 4.100640 6.812735 10.953674 16.897237 25.891593
2025-03-16 1.088188 2.141368 3.881982 6.838842 11.569994 18.639898 29.730102
2025-03-23 0.893843 1.901278 3.667676 6.821323 12.088768 20.252371 33.476739
2025-03-30 0.701181 1.617176 3.323708 6.527386 12.112060 21.083180 36.077626
2025-04-06 0.586888 1.456301 3.166189 6.521016 12.589956 22.643174 39.898782
2025-04-13 0.489332 1.305867 2.999536 6.467700 12.968095 24.053908 43.562739
2025-04-20 0.448442 1.270517 3.051070 6.824460 14.098866 26.791986 49.569162
2025-04-27 0.401122 1.208717 3.036835 7.047473 14.999715 29.193990 55.158670
2025-05-04 0.364879 1.168215 3.066481 7.372035 16.140869 32.132168 61.916771
2025-05-11 0.309618 1.064031 2.937343 7.350927 16.616159 33.924168 66.816152
2025-05-18 0.249890 0.929617 2.712551 7.090976 16.587563 34.790034 70.128666
2025-05-25 0.198203 0.801479 2.476449 6.767912 16.388479 35.310235 72.834663
2025-06-01 0.169668 0.736576 2.387525 6.768748 16.860270 37.129013 78.021509
2025-06-08 0.146503 0.681928 2.315049 6.797435 17.391044 39.093218 83.589064
2025-06-15 0.125280 0.626616 2.229562 6.780932 17.817339 40.874188 88.904698
2025-06-22 0.099671 0.543970 2.046915 6.488806 17.588115 41.310131 91.641155
2025-06-29 0.085486 0.501860 1.977315 6.482572 18.016199 43.119741 97.165756
2025-07-06 0.072400 0.458759 1.895117 6.429562 18.326059 44.698376 102.312397
2025-07-13 0.068857 0.458998 1.955796 6.784523 19.655246 48.525091 112.188112